Strong Jobs Report and 10% Surge in GTA Home Sales: What It Means for the Housing Market

Last week's jobs data was a blowout - but the details add very important context.

Here's the breakdown.

Labour Market

The Labour Force Survey crushed expectations. Markets were pricing in roughly 10K jobs added — the actual number came in at 88K, including a massive 154K gain in full-time employment.

That said, year-to-date employment is still negative — the first time we've seen that in over a decade outside of the pandemic.

Ontario and BC led the way with 67K in combined job gains, with construction topping the sector breakdown. Some of that is likely tied to infrastructure buildout and FIFA World Cup preparations in Toronto and Vancouver — the same cities where job gains were concentrated.

Government hiring also contributed, with roughly 20K public sector jobs added last month, possibly related to census ramp-up.

Despite the strong headline number, the bond market didn't skyrocket — 5-year yields rose only 6bps and remain below last month's high. One strong report won't shift the outlook significantly. Markets need a consistent string of solid data before reassessing.

Toronto Housing

Seasonally adjusted GTA home sales rose 10% month-over-month and 6.3% year-over-year, with single-family homes leading the gains. Detached homes in both the 416 and 905 are up over 8% and 7.5% year-over-year respectively — condos are moving too, just more modestly.

Demand is still historically low by long-term standards — Ontario home sales per 1,000 population remain well below the multi-decade average. The comparison bar from last year was extremely low, so the year-over-year gains aren't surprising even against a challenging macro backdrop. There's clear pent-up demand, and mean reversion suggests we'll eventually move back toward long-term averages.

At the same time, active listings are dropping — down roughly 13% year-over-year across all property types. Less supply, recovering demand. Prices could still grind modestly lower from here, but anyone expecting a sharp drop is likely going to be disappointed. More probable outcome: sales continue to recover while prices stay relatively flat or possible slight grind downward in the near term.

Whether you're thinking about buying, refinancing, or just want to make sure your mortgage is structured the right way given everything happening in the market — I'm happy to help you build a plan.

Austin Yeh is a Smith Manoeuvre Certified Professional and independent mortgage agent based in Toronto, funding mortgages across Canada. He specializes in advanced mortgage strategies for high-income earners, real estate investors, and self-employed borrowers.

Lender features and policies are subject to change. Always verify current product details directly with the lender or through an SMCP-certified mortgage broker. This article is for educational purposes and does not constitute financial or mortgage advice.