Canadian Home Prices Down 20.5% From Peak — Why the Long-Term Outlook May Still Be Bullish

I want to talk about something that's been on my mind — and it's not what most people are focused on right now.

Everyone's watching prices fall and assuming the worst is still ahead. I think that's the wrong read. Let me walk you through what the data is actually saying.

Prices have already corrected — a lot.

Nationally, we're down 20.5% from peak. That's not a small dip. That's a serious repricing.

April marked the 15th consecutive monthly decline, but the last drop was just 0.1%. We're basically flatlining now, not falling hard.

The regional picture matters too. Toronto is sitting roughly 25–30% below its peak. Kitchener is down nearly a third — but that's its own story, heavily tied to the international student collapse at Conestoga College. Winnipeg and Quebec City are the two outliers still holding at record highs.

Could prices soften further? Honestly, yes.

Nobody can call the exact bottom and anyone who tells you otherwise is lying. But the bulk of the correction has most likely already happened.

The part most people aren't talking about.

Single-family building permits in Ontario just hit a 40-year low.

Let that sink in. Builders have essentially stopped building detached homes at levels we haven't seen since the 1980s.

Meanwhile, multi-family rental permits are at all-time highs — so the rental market is getting flooded with new supply.

But the resale single-family market? That pipeline is drying up fast.

When builders stop building at this scale, the resale market tightens — a few years later.

The demand picture has a near-term headwind — but it's not permanent.

International student and temporary worker arrivals are down 80% from 2024 levels.

That's softening demand in the short term, no question. But the people leaving were predominantly renters, not buyers. Permanent residents — the ones who eventually become homeowners — are still arriving at roughly 350,000 per year. That demand doesn't disappear. It just delays.

Nobody knows where the market is going short term. But the long-term trends are hard to ignore.

Supply of single-family homes is collapsing.

Buyer demand is sitting at 30-year lows, which means a massive amount of pent-up demand is building on the sideline. Permanent population growth continues. When confidence eventually returns — if history is any guide — it's going to meet a supply picture that looks nothing like today's.

I'm not here to tell you now is the perfect time to buy.

Nobody can tell you that.

What I can tell you is that the long-term fundamentals for the detached market are pointing toward tightening, not loosening — even with the economic headwinds we're facing today.

If you want to talk through what that means for your specific situation, reply to this or book a call below.

Austin Yeh is a Smith Manoeuvre Certified Professional and independent mortgage agent based in Toronto, funding mortgages across Canada. He specializes in advanced mortgage strategies for high-income earners, real estate investors, and self-employed borrowers.

Lender features and policies are subject to change. Always verify current product details directly with the lender or through an SMCP-certified mortgage broker. This article is for educational purposes and does not constitute financial or mortgage advice.